Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Colony Sim

Only 11 developers shipped a Colony Sim Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Soulmask, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $170k, ×126 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $58k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×12320 the market median. Revenue is up 1095% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 126.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1095% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $58k (exactly $57,542)
Median $170k (exactly $170,315)
Top 25% $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 25
Announced 25
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1095% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Colony Sim
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 39,255 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $58k, median $170k, 1 in 4 over $1.5M, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $58k. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  7. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  8. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Castle Story older $9.99 9,279 67% 278k $2.8M (exactly $2,780,916) Sauropod Studio
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Grand Emprise: Time Travel Survival older $19.99 807 69% 24k $484k (exactly $483,958) Tbjbu2
Farworld Pioneers older $14.99 621 37% 19k $279k (exactly $279,264) Igloosoft
Guardians of the Sanctree $19.99 284 72% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) HuCang Studio
Oceaneers · EA $24.99 103 86% 3.1k $77k (exactly $77,219) Barrel Smash Studios
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
No Ticket Back: Craft, Survive & Escape $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) GameEraStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.