Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Open World game?

Open World + Colony Sim

Of 78 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 168 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $58k, ×39 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.3M, ×4937 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 168 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 39.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 168 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $373k → $229k → $7.6M → $118k → $73k → $119k → $86k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Median $58k (exactly $58,477)
Top 25% $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481)
Top 5% $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 203
Announced 168
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $18.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, Sandbox
Price point
$18.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $18.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 97,944 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.7k, median $58k, 1 in 4 over $1.4M, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.7k. 4 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 168 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RimWorld 2018 · $219M Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M SPORE™ 2008 · $40M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.