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Should I ship an Alternate-History Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Alternate History
Only 16 developers shipped an Alternate-History Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Farthest Frontier, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $59k, ×95 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×40858 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $807 (exactly $807) |
|---|---|
| Median | $59k (exactly $59,370) |
| Top 25% | $978k (exactly $978,358) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 43 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, City Builder
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 33,269 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + Tactical RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M 
Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M 
Cataclismo 2025 · $3.5M 
Heart of the Machine 2026 · $1.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
| | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
| | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
| | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Fantasy Map Simulator | · EA older | $7.99 | 4,190 89% | 126k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) | The Stranger |
 | Worshippers of Cthulhu | $24.99 | 1,305 80% | 39k | $978k (exactly $978,358) | Crazy Goat Games | |
 | Ymir | · EA older | $34.99 | 846 73% | 25k | $888k (exactly $888,046) | Thibaud Michaud |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | Primitive Society Simulator | · EA older | $19.99 | 647 83% | 19k | $388k (exactly $388,006) | YSH BigDove |
 | Polylithic | $14.99 | 278 71% | 8.3k | $125k (exactly $125,017) | polyperfect | |
 | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti | |
 | Aztecs: The Last Sun | $19.99 | 99 62% | 3.0k | $59k (exactly $59,370) | Play2Chill S.A. | |
 | Secret Sexy Streamer | $7.99 | 67 88% | 2.0k | $16k (exactly $16,060) | Fantasy Games | |
 | Nova Patria | $11.99 | 22 100% | 660 | $7.9k (exactly $7,913) | Sower Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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