Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Choices Matter

Of 65 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 145 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5352 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 145 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 145 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $131k → $28k → $11k → $43k → $155k → $4.8k → $16k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $8.2k (exactly $8,247)
Top 25% $158k (exactly $157,941)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 130
Announced 145
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Choices Matter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $31.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $31.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 69,778 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $8.2k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 5 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 145 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M Foundation 2025 · $24M Kingdoms and Castles 2017 · $18M IXION 2022 · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Dawn of Man older $24.99 17,094 86% 513k $13M (exactly $12,815,372) Madruga Works
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.