Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter

Of 4,098 developers who shipped a Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,795 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×729 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 7,795 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 4,098
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $4.8k → $3.9k → $3.2k → $3.6k → $2.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 4,098
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,588)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,343)
Developers, 2 yr 4,098
Released games 11,558
Announced 7,795
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 642,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Choices Matter

71 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Choices Matter + Rome Poor odds $160k 10 devs
  2. Choices Matter + World War I Poor odds $57k 10 devs
  3. Choices Matter + Vampires Poor odds $20k 40 devs
  4. Choices Matter + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $9.8k 350 devs
  5. Choices Matter + Superhero Poor odds $9.0k 16 devs
  6. Choices Matter + Romance Poor odds $8.8k 767 devs
  7. Choices Matter + Trains Poor odds $8.3k 16 devs
  8. Choices Matter + Werewolves Poor odds $7.2k 13 devs
  9. Choices Matter + Music Poor odds $7.2k 18 devs
  10. Choices Matter + Cold War Poor odds $7.0k 19 devs
  11. Choices Matter + Lovecraftian Poor odds $7.0k 72 devs
  12. Choices Matter + Female Protagonist Poor odds $5.7k 609 devs
  13. Choices Matter + Martial Arts Poor odds $5.5k 25 devs
  14. Choices Matter + Historical Poor odds $5.2k 187 devs
  15. Choices Matter + Gothic Poor odds $5.0k 62 devs
  16. Choices Matter + Western Poor odds $4.5k 24 devs
  17. Choices Matter + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $4.5k 159 devs
  18. Choices Matter + Transhumanism Poor odds $3.8k 22 devs
  19. Choices Matter + Mechs Poor odds $3.5k 15 devs
  20. Choices Matter + Heist Poor odds $3.4k 20 devs
  21. Choices Matter + Crime Poor odds $3.2k 119 devs
  22. Choices Matter + Magic Poor odds $3.1k 297 devs
  23. Choices Matter + Time Travel Poor odds $3.1k 49 devs
  24. Choices Matter + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $2.8k 9 devs
  25. Choices Matter + Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 782 devs
  26. Choices Matter + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 159 devs
  27. Choices Matter + Detective Poor odds $2.5k 270 devs
  28. Choices Matter + Dragons Poor odds $2.5k 32 devs
  29. Choices Matter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 355 devs
  30. Choices Matter + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.3k 658 devs
  31. Choices Matter + Medieval Poor odds $2.2k 322 devs
  32. Choices Matter + Supernatural Poor odds $2.2k 210 devs
  33. Choices Matter + Naval Poor odds $2.2k 16 devs
  34. Choices Matter + Assassins Poor odds $2.2k 18 devs
  35. Choices Matter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $2.0k 154 devs
  36. Choices Matter + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 751 devs
  37. Choices Matter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 155 devs
  38. Choices Matter + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 116 devs
  39. Choices Matter + Mystery Poor odds $1.9k 734 devs
  40. Choices Matter + Horses Poor odds $1.7k 9 devs
  41. Choices Matter + War Poor odds $1.7k 84 devs
  42. Choices Matter + Demons Poor odds $1.7k 141 devs
  43. Choices Matter + Military Poor odds $1.6k 67 devs
  44. Choices Matter + Thriller Poor odds $1.5k 285 devs
  45. Choices Matter + Steampunk Poor odds $1.5k 34 devs
  46. Choices Matter + Capitalism Poor odds $1.4k 150 devs
  47. Choices Matter + Science Poor odds $1.4k 41 devs
  48. Choices Matter + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.3k 67 devs
  49. Choices Matter + Psychological Poor odds $1.3k 353 devs
  50. Choices Matter + Pirates Poor odds $1.3k 19 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.