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Should I ship a Detective Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Detective
Of 270 developers who shipped a Detective Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 575 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×867 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 575 games are announced against 168 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $659 (exactly $659) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,518) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,474) |
| Top 5% | $412k (exactly $411,974) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 270 |
| Released games | 741 |
| Announced | 575 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Detective
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 75,177 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $660. 7 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 575 games are announced against 168 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
Heavy Rain 2020 · $16M 
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter 2016 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | Heavy Rain | older | $19.99 | 26,503 85% | 795k | $16M (exactly $15,893,849) | Quantic Dream |
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter | older | $29.99 | 12,076 80% | 362k | $11M (exactly $10,864,777) | Frogwares |
 | Pathologic 2 | older | $34.99 | 9,554 92% | 287k | $10M (exactly $10,028,834) | Ice-Pick Lodge |
 | Raging Loop | older | $29.99 | 10,568 95% | 317k | $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) | KEMCO |
 | Strange Horticulture | older | $15.99 | 14,867 94% | 446k | $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) | Bad Viking |
 | Batman - The Telltale Series | older | $14.99 | 15,060 87% | 452k | $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) | Telltale |
 | Call of Cthulhu® | older | $19.99 | 10,962 79% | 329k | $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | Shift At Midnight | $9.99 | 10,147 88% | 304k | $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) | Bun Muen | |
 | Pathologic 3 | $34.99 | 2,528 80% | 76k | $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) | Ice-Pick Lodge | |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator | $12.99 | 5,191 92% | 156k | $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) | Aluba Van+ | |
 | Strange Antiquities | $17.99 | 3,288 95% | 99k | $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) | Bad Viking | |
 | Zoochosis | $24.99 | 2,200 60% | 66k | $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) | Clapperheads |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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