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Should I ship a Naval Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Naval
Only 16 developers shipped a Naval Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $598 (exactly $598) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,157) |
| Top 25% | $366k (exactly $366,056) |
| Top 5% | $859k (exactly $859,214) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Naval
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Choices Matter
- Price point
- $10.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,449 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M 
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own 2012 · $867k 
Rogue Waters 2024 · $859k 
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! 2015 · $712k 
Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 2026 · $469k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Sea Dogs: To Each His Own | older | $14.99 | 1,927 72% | 58k | $867k (exactly $866,572) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
| | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
| | Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 | $29.99 | 521 86% | 16k | $469k (exactly $468,744) | Digixart | |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Sunken Engine | $14.99 | 814 80% | 24k | $366k (exactly $366,056) | Two Nomads Studio | |
 | Boat Crew | · EA older | $24.99 | 431 89% | 13k | $323k (exactly $323,121) | Tabbing Tabby |
 | Republic of Pirates | older | $24.99 | 420 70% | 13k | $315k (exactly $314,874) | Crazy Goat Games |
 | The Caribbean Sail | older | $14.99 | 503 93% | 15k | $226k (exactly $226,199) | Victorian Clambake |
 | Lost & Found: A This Bed We Made Story | $6.99 | 438 92% | 13k | $92k (exactly $91,849) | Lowbirth Games | |
 | Sunrider Legends Tactics | $29.99 | 40 80% | 1.2k | $36k (exactly $35,988) | Love in Space | |
 | Herald: The Interactive Period Drama – Complete Edition | $19.99 | 23 78% | 690 | $14k (exactly $13,793) | Wispfire | |
 | Ship of the line | · EA | $7.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $2.2k (exactly $2,157) | YDS |
 | Silk and Sabre | · EA | $10.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $1.3k (exactly $1,319) | JellyFluff Games |
 | War and Politics | · EA | $3.99 | 7 42% | 210 | $838 (exactly $838) | JIYUTORISEI |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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