Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Capitalism

Of 150 developers who shipped a Capitalist Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 273 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×434 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 273 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 273 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 150
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $2.9k → $6.2k → $2.4k → $5.8k → $959 → $2.1k (still earning) → $848 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 150
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,576)
Top 5% $206k (exactly $206,108)
Developers, 2 yr 150
Released games 318
Announced 273
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 18,797 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 273 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
New Tales from the Borderlands older $39.99 1,737 29% 52k $2.1M (exactly $2,083,879) Gearbox Software
Dealer's Life 2 older $14.99 3,994 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,796,102) Abyte Entertainment
Plutocracy · EA older $24.99 1,305 79% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Redwood
Football Life Simulator · EA $19.99 1,567 68% 47k $940k (exactly $939,730) Ludu Arts
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
Thank You For Your Application $19.99 953 81% 29k $572k (exactly $571,514) IceLemonTea Studio
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
Cinema Simulator 2025 · EA $11.99 573 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,108) HOGO Games
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games
King of Retail 2 · EA $19.99 275 79% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Freaking Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.