Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Thriller
Should I ship a Thriller Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Thriller
Of 285 developers who shipped a Thriller Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 482 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×662 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 482 games are announced against 185 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,394) |
| Top 5% | $314k (exactly $314,321) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 285 |
| Released games | 664 |
| Announced | 482 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Thriller
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Simulation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 52,843 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 133 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 482 games are announced against 185 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
The Quarry 2022 · $29M 
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Beyond: Two Souls 2020 · $22M 
Heavy Rain 2020 · $16M 
No, I'm not a Human 2025 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Quarry | older | $59.99 | 16,127 83% | 484k | $29M (exactly $29,023,762) | Supermassive Games |
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Beyond: Two Souls | older | $19.99 | 37,154 87% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,281,254) | Quantic Dream |
| | Heavy Rain | older | $19.99 | 26,503 85% | 795k | $16M (exactly $15,893,849) | Quantic Dream |
| | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
 | Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter | older | $29.99 | 12,076 80% | 362k | $11M (exactly $10,864,777) | Frogwares |
 | Choo-Choo Charles | older | $19.99 | 16,292 91% | 489k | $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) | Two Star Games |
 | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
 | The Sinking City Remastered | older | $39.99 | 5,361 75% | 161k | $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) | Frogwares |
 | Sherlock Holmes Chapter One | older | $44.99 | 4,189 77% | 126k | $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) | Frogwares |
 | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | $39.99 | 2,911 83% | 87k | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) | ZA/UM | |
 | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | Zoochosis | $24.99 | 2,200 60% | 66k | $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) | Clapperheads | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 | $22.99 | 2,149 96% | 64k | $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) | Storytaco | |
 | The Thing: Remastered | $29.99 | 1,203 89% | 36k | $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) | Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks | |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | Class of '09: The Flip Side | $9.99 | 3,356 57% | 101k | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,793) | SBN3 | |
 | A.I.L.A | $29.99 | 889 81% | 27k | $800k (exactly $799,833) | Pulsatrix Studios | |
 | That's not my Neighbor | $2.99 | 4,498 88% | 135k | $403k (exactly $403,471) | Nachosama Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.