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Should I ship a Supernatural Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Supernatural
Of 210 developers who shipped a Supernatural Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 449 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×652 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 449 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,157) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,327) |
| Top 5% | $310k (exactly $309,626) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 210 |
| Released games | 505 |
| Announced | 449 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Supernatural
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 32,039 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 109 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 449 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Life is Strange: True Colors 2021 · $22M 
Darkwood 2017 · $13M 
Life is Strange: Double Exposure 2024 · $12M 
Life is Strange Remastered 2022 · $11M 
Banishers: Ghosts of New Eden 2024 · $9.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Life is Strange: True Colors | older | $59.99 | 12,360 88% | 371k | $22M (exactly $22,244,292) | Deck Nine |
| | Darkwood | older | $19.99 | 22,236 94% | 667k | $13M (exactly $13,334,929) | Acid Wizard Studio |
| | Life is Strange: Double Exposure | $49.99 | 7,842 68% | 235k | $12M (exactly $11,760,647) | Deck Nine Games | |
| | Life is Strange Remastered | older | $39.99 | 9,187 91% | 276k | $11M (exactly $11,021,644) | Deck Nine |
| | Banishers: Ghosts of New Eden | older | $49.99 | 6,429 84% | 193k | $9.6M (exactly $9,641,571) | DON'T NOD |
 | The Dark Pictures Anthology: House of Ashes | older | $29.99 | 7,360 89% | 221k | $6.6M (exactly $6,621,792) | Supermassive Games |
 | Life is Strange: Reunion | $39.99 | 4,535 89% | 136k | $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) | Deck Nine Games | |
 | The Casting of Frank Stone™ | older | $29.99 | 5,580 62% | 167k | $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) | Supermassive Games |
 | Life is Strange: Before the Storm Remastered | older | $39.99 | 4,111 85% | 123k | $4.9M (exactly $4,931,967) | Deck Nine |
 | Weird West: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 3,962 77% | 119k | $4.8M (exactly $4,753,211) | WolfEye Studios |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate | $14.00 | 3,275 95% | 98k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) | Xso | |
 | The Dark Queen of Mortholme | $4.99 | 4,075 83% | 122k | $610k (exactly $610,028) | Mosu | |
 | HELLMART | $14.99 | 1,034 77% | 31k | $465k (exactly $464,990) | GAZE IN GAMES | |
 | Stygian: Outer Gods | · EA | $24.99 | 516 80% | 15k | $387k (exactly $386,845) | Misterial Games |
 | Deep Sleep: Labyrinth of the Forsaken | $19.99 | 595 94% | 18k | $357k (exactly $356,822) | scriptwelder | |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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