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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Dark Fantasy
Of 355 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 795 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1225 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 795 games are announced against 237 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $540 (exactly $540) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $30,130) |
| Top 5% | $769k (exactly $769,415) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 355 |
| Released games | 819 |
| Announced | 795 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 112,550 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 136 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 795 games are announced against 237 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Lies of P 2023 · $105M 
Grim Dawn 2016 · $70M 
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021 · $51M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Lies of P | older | $59.99 | 58,411 91% | 1.8M | $105M (exactly $105,122,277) | NEOWIZ |
| | Grim Dawn | older | $24.99 | 92,979 93% | 2.8M | $70M (exactly $69,706,356) | Crate Entertainment |
| | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 80,882 89% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,504,935) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room | |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Of Ash and Steel | $29.99 | 6,091 66% | 183k | $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) | Fire & Frost | |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II | $39.99 | 2,088 53% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) | Bulwark Studios | |
 | Void War | $19.99 | 3,653 94% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) | Tundra | |
 | Hell Clock | $19.99 | 3,535 82% | 106k | $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) | Rogue Snail | |
 | Nordhold | $19.99 | 2,875 87% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) | StunForge |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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