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Should I ship an Alternate-History Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Alternate History
Of 116 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 265 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 265 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,901) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $17,391) |
| Top 5% | $626k (exactly $626,087) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 116 |
| Released games | 320 |
| Announced | 265 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 180,437 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 265 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Imperator: Rome 2019 · $23M 
Not For Broadcast 2022 · $7.7M 
Suzerain 2020 · $6.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Not For Broadcast | older | $24.99 | 10,337 94% | 310k | $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) | NotGames |
| | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
 | Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG | older | $29.99 | 4,193 77% | 126k | $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) | Dark Crystal Games |
 | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
 | Regiments | older | $29.99 | 2,822 87% | 85k | $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) | Bird's Eye Games |
 | Observer: System Redux | older | $29.99 | 2,462 84% | 74k | $2.2M (exactly $2,215,061) | Bloober Team, Anshar Studios |
 | Hell Clock | $19.99 | 3,535 82% | 106k | $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) | Rogue Snail | |
 | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Rosewater | $19.99 | 348 91% | 10k | $209k (exactly $208,696) | Grundislav Games | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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