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Should I ship a Cold-War Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Cold War
Only 19 developers shipped a Cold-War Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Air Defender, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is up 280% on the market; 49 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.0k (exactly $7,036) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $24,465) |
| Top 5% | $220k (exactly $220,475) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 49 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Cold War
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Simulation, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.19 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $20.19 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,006 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Regiments 2022 · $2.5M 
Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k 
Chornobyl Liquidators 2024 · $357k 
1979 Revolution: Black Friday 2016 · $306k 
Air Defender 2025 · EA · $220k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Regiments | older | $29.99 | 2,822 87% | 85k | $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) | Bird's Eye Games |
| | Twilight Struggle | older | $9.99 | 2,568 86% | 77k | $770k (exactly $769,630) | Playdek, Inc. |
| | Chornobyl Liquidators | older | $19.99 | 595 50% | 18k | $357k (exactly $356,822) | Live Motion Games, Frozen Way |
| | 1979 Revolution: Black Friday | older | $9.99 | 1,021 76% | 31k | $306k (exactly $305,994) | iNK Stories, N-Fusion Interactive |
| | Air Defender | · EA | $20.19 | 364 78% | 11k | $220k (exactly $220,475) | ROTOR3 |
 | Crisis in the Kremlin | older | $4.99 | 1,372 83% | 41k | $205k (exactly $205,388) | Nostalgames |
 | Ostalgie: The Berlin Wall | older | $5.99 | 666 92% | 20k | $120k (exactly $119,680) | Nostalgames |
 | Heroines Through My Lens | $19.99 | 168 87% | 5.0k | $101k (exactly $100,750) | Storytaco | |
 | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
 | Orwell's Animal Farm | older | $9.99 | 150 75% | 4.5k | $45k (exactly $44,955) | Nerial |
 | Kriophobia | $14.99 | 60 90% | 1.8k | $27k (exactly $26,982) | Fira Soft | |
 | What Awaits, Aleksey? | $15.99 | 51 86% | 1.5k | $24k (exactly $24,465) | JKBC | |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | Rise of Atom | $19.99 | 29 79% | 870 | $17k (exactly $17,391) | Glass Bubble Software | |
 | POTUS Election Sim | $9.99 | 47 53% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | Dackers Studios | |
 | Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy | $9.99 | 33 90% | 990 | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) | Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio | |
 | Project Looking Glass | $4.99 | 47 100% | 1.4k | $7.0k (exactly $7,036) | MORPH |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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