Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Psychological Horror

Of 658 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,221 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×852 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 1,221 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 1,221 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 658
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.5k → $4.8k → $6.5k → $3.3k → $4.9k → $3.1k → $1.2k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 658
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,257)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,685)
Top 5% $405k (exactly $404,639)
Developers, 2 yr 658
Released games 1,617
Announced 1,221
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Adventure, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 203,217 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 332 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,221 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Undertale 2015 · $92M Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M The Quarry 2022 · $29M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undertale older $9.99 307,601 96% 9.2M $92M (exactly $92,188,020) tobyfox
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe older $24.99 34,268 94% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,690,720) Crows Crows Crows
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
The Stanley Parable older $14.99 40,292 92% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,119,312) Galactic Cafe
OneShot older $9.99 59,201 98% 1.8M $18M (exactly $17,742,540) Future Cat LLC
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
Tiny Bunny $10.99 27,200 83% 816k $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) Saikono, Sokar
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Endacopia $16.50 6,474 99% 194k $3.2M (exactly $3,204,630) Andyland
Urban Myth Dissolution Center $17.99 5,930 88% 178k $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) Hakababunko
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.