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Should I ship a Science Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Science
Of 41 developers who shipped a Science Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×119 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 69 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $360 (exactly $360) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,436) |
| Top 25% | $9.7k (exactly $9,684) |
| Top 5% | $57k (exactly $56,643) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 135 |
| Announced | 69 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Science
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,379 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey 2020 · $12M 
The Invincible 2023 · $9.0M 
STEINS;GATE 0 2018 · $8.3M 
STEINS;GATE ELITE 2019 · $2.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey | older | $39.99 | 9,794 81% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,749,862) | Panache Digital Games |
| | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
| | STEINS;GATE 0 | older | $34.99 | 7,916 95% | 237k | $8.3M (exactly $8,309,425) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | STEINS;GATE ELITE | older | $59.99 | 1,584 90% | 48k | $2.9M (exactly $2,850,725) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
 | Terraformers | older | $19.99 | 3,031 88% | 91k | $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) | Asteroid Lab |
 | Mars Horizon | older | $19.99 | 2,757 84% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) | Auroch Digital |
 | CHAOS;HEAD NOAH | older | $24.99 | 1,997 88% | 60k | $1.5M (exactly $1,497,151) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | Emergency Room Simulator | $24.99 | 154 43% | 4.6k | $115k (exactly $115,454) | Caipirinha Games | |
 | SEX Hospital 💦 | $9.99 | 189 69% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,643) | Lust Desires 🖤 | |
 | Orgasm Lab Simulator 💦🍌 | $14.99 | 119 69% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | BanzaiProject | |
 | Chernobyl: Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 76 90% | 2.3k | $46k (exactly $45,577) | Rikarin Studio |
 | Periapsis: Eclipse | · EA | $14.99 | 53 71% | 1.6k | $24k (exactly $23,834) | Skytrellis Games |
 | The Fool's Apprentice | $16.99 | 42 52% | 1.3k | $21k (exactly $21,407) | The Planar Danse | |
 | The Libido Enigma | $12.99 | 46 84% | 1.4k | $18k (exactly $17,926) | broiler_x | |
 | Governor | $15.99 | 30 76% | 900 | $14k (exactly $14,391) | Daniling | |
 | Not Sure About That | $4.99 | 76 98% | 2.3k | $11k (exactly $11,377) | Scratch |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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