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Should I ship a Crime Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Crime
Of 119 developers who shipped a Crime Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 345 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×522 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 345 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.2k (exactly $3,232) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,388) |
| Top 5% | $328k (exactly $327,910) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 119 |
| Released games | 361 |
| Announced | 345 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Crime
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 19,165 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 345 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers 2022 · $23M 
Heavy Rain 2020 · $16M 
Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter 2016 · $11M 
911 Operator 2017 · $6.5M 
Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments 2014 · $6.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Police Simulator: Patrol Officers | older | $39.99 | 18,880 75% | 566k | $23M (exactly $22,650,336) | Aesir Interactive |
| | Heavy Rain | older | $19.99 | 26,503 85% | 795k | $16M (exactly $15,893,849) | Quantic Dream |
| | Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter | older | $29.99 | 12,076 80% | 362k | $11M (exactly $10,864,777) | Frogwares |
| | 911 Operator | older | $14.99 | 14,416 89% | 432k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,875) | Jutsu Games |
| | Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments | older | $29.99 | 7,130 89% | 214k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,861) | Frogwares |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | Sherlock Holmes Chapter One | older | $44.99 | 4,189 77% | 126k | $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) | Frogwares |
 | The Case of the Golden Idol | older | $17.99 | 9,794 97% | 294k | $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) | Color Gray Games |
 | Hacknet | older | $9.99 | 16,910 93% | 507k | $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) | Team Fractal Alligator |
 | The Casting of Frank Stone™ | older | $29.99 | 5,580 62% | 167k | $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) | Supermassive Games |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | Race of Life - Act 1 | $13.99 | 1,183 94% | 35k | $497k (exactly $496,505) | Underground Studio | |
 | Saloon Simulator | · EA | $18.99 | 860 89% | 26k | $490k (exactly $489,942) | Glivi Games S.A. |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
 | BM General Hospital | $7.99 | 1,368 86% | 41k | $328k (exactly $327,910) | zzzgame | |
 | Evil School | $7.99 | 1,058 92% | 32k | $254k (exactly $253,603) | CineGame Interactive | |
 | Refate: Echoes of Desire | $14.99 | 558 87% | 17k | $251k (exactly $250,933) | Terraflame Entertainment | |
 | Forensics: Crime Scene Detective | $24.99 | 288 62% | 8.6k | $216k (exactly $215,914) | Binary Impact, Alchemical Works | |
 | Stiff Neck | $6.99 | 955 81% | 29k | $200k (exactly $200,264) | 伤官制作组 Team Uranian |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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