Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Rome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roman Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Rome

Only 10 developers shipped a Roman Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Anno 117: Pax Romana, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $160k, ×254 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×34819 the market median. Revenue is up 1775% on the market; 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 254.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1775% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Rome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Choices Matter + Rome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $6.5k (exactly $6,501)
Median $160k (exactly $159,520)
Top 25% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Top 5% $22M (exactly $21,866,355)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 31
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1775% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Rome
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Choices Matter
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 14,727 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.6k, median $160k, 1 in 4 over $450k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.6k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced
  12. + VampiresPoor odds40 devs · median $20k · 93 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
The Age of Decadence older $14.99 3,582 82% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,825) Iron Tower Studio
Slaves of Rome older $24.99 1,924 73% 58k $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) Biggus Diccus Games
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
A Legionary's Life older $7.99 2,463 87% 74k $590k (exactly $590,381) Alessandro Roberti
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
Pompeii: The Legacy $19.99 266 80% 8.0k $160k (exactly $159,520) Siscia Games
Long Live Caesar $9.99 51 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs
Ovidius (Blood for Love) $6.99 31 67% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Narrator Studio
Ludus: A Gladiator Story $8.99 11 9% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) A Story Interactive
Rod of Asclepius $19.99 3 100% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Worcco Arts
Rumours of a Roman Empire $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Little Black Book Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.