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Should I ship a Mystery Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Mystery
Of 734 developers who shipped a Mystery Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,537 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $530; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×751 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,537 games are announced against 461 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $525 (exactly $525) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,887) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,269) |
| Top 5% | $357k (exactly $356,822) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 734 |
| Released games | 1,867 |
| Announced | 1,537 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 112,992 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $530. 7 in 10 of the 331 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,537 games are announced against 461 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe 2022 · $26M 
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Life is Strange: True Colors 2021 · $22M 
Life is Strange: Before the Storm 2017 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe | older | $24.99 | 34,268 94% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,690,720) | Crows Crows Crows |
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Life is Strange: True Colors | older | $59.99 | 12,360 88% | 371k | $22M (exactly $22,244,292) | Deck Nine |
| | Life is Strange: Before the Storm | older | $16.99 | 33,504 93% | 1.0M | $17M (exactly $17,076,989) | Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Heavy Rain | older | $19.99 | 26,503 85% | 795k | $16M (exactly $15,893,849) | Quantic Dream |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
 | Life is Strange: Double Exposure | $49.99 | 7,842 68% | 235k | $12M (exactly $11,760,647) | Deck Nine Games | |
 | Life is Strange Remastered | older | $39.99 | 9,187 91% | 276k | $11M (exactly $11,021,644) | Deck Nine |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Lost Records: Bloom & Rage | $39.99 | 5,873 86% | 176k | $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) | DON'T NOD | |
 | Until Dawn™ | $59.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) | Ballistic Moon | |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | Life is Strange: Reunion | $39.99 | 4,535 89% | 136k | $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) | Deck Nine Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | Shift At Midnight | $9.99 | 10,147 88% | 304k | $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) | Bun Muen |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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