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Should I ship a Historical Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Historical
Of 187 developers who shipped a Historical Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 342 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.2k, ×8.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3517 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 342 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,169) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.2k (exactly $5,242) |
| Top 25% | $79k (exactly $79,147) |
| Top 5% | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 187 |
| Released games | 553 |
| Announced | 342 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 229,904 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 342 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
Anno 1800 2019 · $54M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,870 92% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,710,639) | niceplay games |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | News Tower | $24.99 | 4,316 94% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) | Sparrow Night | |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle | $17.99 | 4,595 67% | 138k | $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) | ChillyRoom | |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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