Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Modern

Of 159 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 240 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×232 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 240 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 240 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 159
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $8.8k → $3.4k → $3.9k → $12k → $4.5k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 159
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,345)
Developers, 2 yr 159
Released games 508
Announced 240
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Simulation, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,504 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 240 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
911 Operator older $14.99 14,416 89% 432k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,875) Jutsu Games
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Alpha Protocol™ older $19.99 3,420 83% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,050,974) Obsidian Entertainment
Acting Lessons older $9.99 5,050 95% 152k $1.5M (exactly $1,513,485) Dr PinkCake
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Citystate II older $24.99 1,098 73% 33k $823k (exactly $823,171) Andy Sztark
Love and Sex: Second Base older $19.99 1,340 91% 40k $804k (exactly $803,598) Andrealphus Games
MILF's Plaza older $14.99 1,585 73% 48k $713k (exactly $712,774) Texic
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Pawnbroker Simulator $14.99 359 69% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) Next Sky Games
Anomalous Coffee Machine 2 $6.99 753 81% 23k $158k (exactly $157,904) HoruBrain Interactive
Exposed Livestream $9.99 520 81% 16k $156k (exactly $155,844) Kumada Gaon
Don’t Tell Mom: I Fed My Stepsister 💦😳 $14.99 280 62% 8.4k $126k (exactly $125,916) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
这个CEO我当定了! $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两
Afterlove EP $19.99 184 90% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Pikselnesia
LOVE Hotel Simulator 🏩 $14.99 241 70% 7.2k $108k (exactly $108,378) Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀
Content King $11.99 293 95% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Usurper Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.