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Should I ship a Magic Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Magic
Of 297 developers who shipped a Magic Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 632 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1454 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 632 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,116) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $26,618) |
| Top 5% | $690k (exactly $690,474) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 297 |
| Released games | 827 |
| Announced | 632 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Magic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 142,577 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 144 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 632 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M 
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition 2012 · $49M 
Mewgenics 2026 · $45M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
| | The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 80,882 89% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,504,935) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
 | The Witcher: Enhanced Edition Director's Cut | older | $9.99 | 81,712 89% | 2.5M | $24M (exactly $24,489,086) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | OCTOPATH TRAVELER II | older | $59.99 | 13,407 93% | 402k | $24M (exactly $24,128,578) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | GreedFall | older | $34.99 | 18,460 75% | 554k | $19M (exactly $19,377,462) | Spiders |
 | Avowed | $49.99 | 12,653 76% | 380k | $19M (exactly $18,975,704) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Fable Anniversary | older | $34.99 | 14,763 86% | 443k | $15M (exactly $15,496,721) | Lionhead Studios |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Of Ash and Steel | $29.99 | 6,091 66% | 183k | $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) | Fire & Frost | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Age of Reforging: The Freelands | $29.99 | 2,291 71% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed | $39.99 | 1,275 93% | 38k | $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) | Purple Lamp | |
 | 美女，请别影响我成仙 | $10.99 | 3,140 93% | 94k | $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) | 蒸汽满满工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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