Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Vampires

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vampire Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Vampires

Of 40 developers who shipped a Vampire Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $20k, ×32 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×29927 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 93 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 31.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 93 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Vampires
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $2.5k → $31k → $166k → $48k → $30k → $4.2k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Vampires: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $20k (exactly $19,787)
Top 25% $104k (exactly $104,488)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $18,794,267)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 115
Announced 93
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Vampires
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 31,022 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Vampyr older $39.99 20,081 77% 602k $24M (exactly $24,091,176) DONTNOD Entertainment
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Banishers: Ghosts of New Eden older $49.99 6,429 84% 193k $9.6M (exactly $9,641,571) DON'T NOD
Monster Prom older $11.99 12,245 93% 367k $4.4M (exactly $4,404,526) Beautiful Glitch
Vampire: The Masquerade - Coteries of New York older $19.99 2,279 74% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,716) Draw Distance
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
Vampire: The Masquerade – Swansong older $49.99 561 65% 17k $841k (exactly $841,332) Big Bad Wolf
DRACU-RIOT! $34.99 722 98% 22k $758k (exactly $757,883) YUZUSOFT
Hakuoki: Kyoto Winds older $9.99 1,952 92% 59k $585k (exactly $585,014) Idea Factory, Design Factory
Sex & Blood: Vampires $9.99 759 71% 23k $227k (exactly $227,472) Taboo Tales 💘
The Seven Realms: High Lathión $12.99 427 80% 13k $166k (exactly $166,402) SeptCloud Games
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
Near-Mage $19.99 180 89% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Stuck In Attic
Suck Up! $16.99 205 62% 6.2k $104k (exactly $104,488) Proxima

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.