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Should I ship a Villain-Led Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Villain Protagonist
Only 9 developers shipped a Villain-Led Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Dark Queen of Mortholme, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×6.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×1284 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,171) |
| Top 5% | $610k (exactly $610,028) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,201 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Tyranny 2016 · $8.9M 
This Is the Police 2016 · $4.1M 
This Is the Police 2 2018 · $2.4M 
Beat Cop 2017 · $2.2M 
The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™ 2023 · $1.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Tyranny | older | $29.99 | 9,877 87% | 296k | $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | This Is the Police | older | $14.99 | 9,153 82% | 275k | $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) | Weappy Studio |
| | This Is the Police 2 | older | $14.99 | 5,330 77% | 160k | $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) | Weappy Studio |
| | Beat Cop | older | $14.99 | 4,841 81% | 145k | $2.2M (exactly $2,176,998) | Pixel Crow |
| | The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™ | older | $49.99 | 839 41% | 25k | $1.3M (exactly $1,258,248) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | The Dark Queen of Mortholme | $4.99 | 4,075 83% | 122k | $610k (exactly $610,028) | Mosu | |
 | My Lovely Daughter | older | $14.99 | 1,165 70% | 35k | $524k (exactly $523,900) | GameChanger Studio |
 | The Shrouded Isle | older | $12.99 | 1,166 71% | 35k | $454k (exactly $454,390) | Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short) |
 | The Fabulous Fear Machine | older | $17.99 | 542 89% | 16k | $293k (exactly $292,517) | Fictiorama Studios |
 | Blackguards 2 | older | $9.99 | 953 64% | 29k | $286k (exactly $285,614) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | Marry a Deep One: Innsmouth Simulator | $17.99 | 32 50% | 960 | $17k (exactly $17,270) | simulinati | |
 | Landlord Simulator | · EA | $13.99 | 29 62% | 870 | $12k (exactly $12,171) | BeyondPlanet |
 | Utopia: Birth of The Heroes | · EA | $19.99 | 16 100% | 480 | $9.6k (exactly $9,595) | Mana Core Game Studios |
 | Werewolf Twins 👹 | $4.99 | 19 89% | 570 | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) | TheBigO Games | |
 | Red Riding Hood 🐺 | $4.99 | 18 88% | 540 | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) | TheBigO Games | |
 | Love and Hatred | $13.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,259) | LewdPalace Games | |
 | Yes, My Warlord | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Staple Studios | |
 | Dunia: The North Wood - Episode 0 | $0.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $208 (exactly $208) | Team Wood Block | |
 | Ririka von Lustveil | $2.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $90 (exactly $90) | hexecho |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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