Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Dragons

Of 32 developers who shipped a Dragon Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5150 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 62 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 62 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $24k → $1.9k → $120 → $3.0k → $10k → $6.5k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,124)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 98
Announced 62
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 49,334 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition 2010 · $26M Dragon Age™ Inquisition 2020 · $23M Storyteller 2023 · $3.7M Mind Over Magic 2025 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Dragon Age™ Inquisition older $39.99 19,162 75% 575k $23M (exactly $22,988,651) BioWare
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Divinity: Dragon Commander older $39.99 1,976 73% 59k $2.4M (exactly $2,370,607) Larian Studios
Knights College older $24.99 2,088 96% 63k $1.6M (exactly $1,565,374) KAIJYU-09
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Aground older $14.99 1,823 94% 55k $820k (exactly $819,803) Fancy Fish Games, SnöBox Studio
Golden Treasure: The Great Green older $19.99 909 95% 27k $545k (exactly $545,127) Dreaming Door Studios
The RPG $14.99 769 86% 23k $346k (exactly $345,819) Dionysus Acroreites
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Prophecy of Ashen $9.99 201 76% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) hhyuGame
Adventure of Samsara $19.99 66 89% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ilex Games
Six Legends $14.99 87 100% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Vincent Paquin
Broken Alliance · EA $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Placeholder Gameworks
Lunars · EA $14.99 40 97% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Anubis Arts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.