Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Transhumanism

Of 22 developers who shipped a Transhumanist Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×11358 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 65 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 65 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.0k → $4.4M → $3.8k → $1.9k → $5.4k (still earning) → $7.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,776)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 59
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Text-Based, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 19,461 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
Paradise Lost older $14.99 1,469 67% 44k $661k (exactly $660,609) PolyAmorous
Cockwork Industries Complete older $9.99 864 76% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) Digital Seductions
Re-Legion older $9.99 200 62% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ice Code Games
Ceiba older $6.99 255 94% 7.7k $53k (exactly $53,474) Wirion, 7DOTS
Vampire: The Masquerade — Sins of the Sires older $11.99 143 39% 4.3k $51k (exactly $51,437) Choice of Games
The Library of Babel older $18.99 61 70% 1.8k $35k (exactly $34,752) Tanuki Game Studio
KUUKIYOMI: Consider It World - Thailand Ver. $9.99 107 98% 3.2k $32k (exactly $32,068) Urnique Studio
Songs of Rats $14.99 50 78% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Tesseract Games
春はあけぼの、我はバケモノ。 - Spring at Dawn, I Am a Monster. $9.99 75 64% 2.3k $22k (exactly $22,478) CHARON, STUDIO CHARON
Veins Like Tapeworms $19.99 20 95% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) AwesomeTrinket
The Queen of Phalli $9.99 39 87% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Labor of Love
Holonoptic $19.95 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,576) Glazial
Project Looking Glass $4.99 47 100% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) MORPH
Imago Season $9.50 19 89% 570 $5.4k (exactly $5,415) Lunar Finch

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.