Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter

Of 4,098 developers who shipped a Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,795 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×729 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 7,795 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 4,098
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $4.8k → $3.9k → $3.2k → $3.6k → $2.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 4,098
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,588)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,343)
Developers, 2 yr 4,098
Released games 11,558
Announced 7,795
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 642,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Choices Matter

173 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Choices Matter + FMV Strong odds $58k 108 devs
  2. Choices Matter + Escape Room Fair $4.7k 18 devs
  3. Sports + Choices Matter Fair $2.4k 120 devs
  4. Choices Matter + Rhythm Fair $2.4k 36 devs
  5. Choices Matter + Hidden Object Fair $802 261 devs
  6. Choices Matter + Trivia Fair $599 26 devs
  7. Choices Matter + Board Game Fair $479 119 devs
  8. Racing + Choices Matter Fair $449 51 devs
  9. Choices Matter + Chess Fair $419 19 devs
  10. Real-Time with Pause + Choices Matter Poor odds $215k 9 devs
  11. Souls-like + Choices Matter Poor odds $12k 47 devs
  12. Choices Matter + Dating Sim Poor odds $11k 618 devs
  13. Turn-Based + Choices Matter Poor odds $9.0k 81 devs
  14. City Builder + Choices Matter Poor odds $9.0k 66 devs
  15. JRPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $8.7k 151 devs
  16. Colony Sim + Choices Matter Poor odds $8.2k 65 devs
  17. Choices Matter + Job Simulator Poor odds $8.2k 43 devs
  18. Choices Matter + Roguelike Deckbuilder Poor odds $8.1k 113 devs
  19. Football (American) + Choices Matter Poor odds $8.1k 11 devs
  20. Base Building + Choices Matter Poor odds $6.0k 109 devs
  21. CRPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $5.8k 122 devs
  22. Tactical RPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $5.5k 123 devs
  23. Choices Matter + Otome Poor odds $5.4k 77 devs
  24. 4X + Choices Matter Poor odds $5.4k 21 devs
  25. Co-op Campaign + Choices Matter Poor odds $4.9k 12 devs
  26. RPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $4.8k 1,145 devs
  27. Party-Based RPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $4.8k 97 devs
  28. Choices Matter + Visual Novel Poor odds $4.7k 1,351 devs
  29. Choices Matter + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.5k 312 devs
  30. RTS + Choices Matter Poor odds $4.5k 81 devs
  31. Choices Matter + Medical Sim Poor odds $4.2k 33 devs
  32. Gun Customization + Choices Matter Poor odds $4.1k 27 devs
  33. Building + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.9k 126 devs
  34. Immersive Sim + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.9k 525 devs
  35. Choices Matter + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.9k 20 devs
  36. Sailing + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.6k 10 devs
  37. Character Customization + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.6k 317 devs
  38. Choices Matter + Life Sim Poor odds $3.5k 355 devs
  39. Choices Matter + Metroidvania Poor odds $3.5k 30 devs
  40. Choices Matter + Hex Grid Poor odds $3.5k 17 devs
  41. Open World + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.2k 214 devs
  42. Choices Matter + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $3.1k 1,097 devs
  43. Sandbox + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.0k 210 devs
  44. Agriculture + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  45. Strategy RPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $3.0k 179 devs
  46. Choices Matter + Fishing Poor odds $3.0k 24 devs
  47. Choices Matter + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.0k 866 devs
  48. Class-Based + Choices Matter Poor odds $2.9k 64 devs
  49. Choices Matter + Multiple Endings Poor odds $2.7k 1,787 devs
  50. Simulation + Choices Matter Poor odds $2.7k 1,391 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.