Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + LGBTQ+

Of 350 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 524 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.8k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1791 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 524 games are announced against 217 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 524 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 350
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $17k → $5.1k → $8.1k → $6.7k → $9.4k → $9.9k (still earning) → $6.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 350
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Median $9.8k (exactly $9,777)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $56,372)
Top 5% $851k (exactly $850,832)
Developers, 2 yr 350
Released games 1,274
Announced 524
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 454,770 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $9.8k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 194 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 524 games are announced against 217 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Dragon Age™ Inquisition older $39.99 19,162 75% 575k $23M (exactly $22,988,651) BioWare
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
GreedFall older $34.99 18,460 75% 554k $19M (exactly $19,377,462) Spiders
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.