Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Female Protagonist

Of 609 developers who shipped a Female-Led Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,106 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×939 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,106 games are announced against 356 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,106 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 609
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $10k → $4.9k → $5.4k → $5.4k → $7.1k → $3.8k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 609
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,200)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,835)
Top 5% $446k (exactly $446,102)
Developers, 2 yr 609
Released games 1,907
Announced 1,106
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 93,947 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 335 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,106 games are announced against 356 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Dragon Age™ Inquisition older $39.99 19,162 75% 575k $23M (exactly $22,988,651) BioWare
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.