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Should I ship an Assassin Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Assassins
Only 18 developers shipped an Assassin Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Evil School, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,946) |
| Top 5% | $254k (exactly $253,603) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 43 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Assassins
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Action
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,585 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ 2017 · $8.8M 
Evil School 2026 · $254k 
NO, THANK YOU!!! 2018 · $216k 
Ereban: Shadow Legacy 2024 · $163k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ | older | $29.99 | 9,801 86% | 294k | $8.8M (exactly $8,817,960) | Arkane Studios |
| | Evil School | $7.99 | 1,058 92% | 32k | $254k (exactly $253,603) | CineGame Interactive | |
| | NO, THANK YOU!!! | older | $39.99 | 180 87% | 5.4k | $216k (exactly $215,946) | parade |
| | Ereban: Shadow Legacy | older | $19.99 | 271 85% | 8.1k | $163k (exactly $162,519) | Baby Robot Games |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | The Executioner | older | $9.99 | 315 64% | 9.5k | $94k (exactly $94,406) | Lesser Evil Games |
 | Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.8 | older | $29.99 | 101 92% | 3.0k | $91k (exactly $90,870) | Frontwing |
 | Trash Horror Collection | older | $5.99 | 488 95% | 15k | $88k (exactly $87,694) | 616 GAMES |
 | The Siege and the Sandfox | $14.99 | 180 64% | 5.4k | $81k (exactly $80,946) | Cardboard Sword | |
 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City | $24.99 | 105 76% | 3.2k | $79k (exactly $78,718) | Cortopia Studios | |
 | Rivers of Astrum: Daughter of Darkness | · EA | $8.99 | 48 83% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $12,946) | Paper Tiger |
 | 超探偵シャーロックちゃん ～掟破りのミスディレクション～ | $9.99 | 38 73% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | おんねんちゃんねる | |
 | CrimeBot 2: Detective Mystery Games | $7.99 | 24 50% | 720 | $5.8k (exactly $5,753) | RoboBot Studio | |
 | Empire of Vice : Chicago | · EA | $16.99 | 9 77% | 270 | $4.6k (exactly $4,587) | Artifex Parvus |
 | Circus of the Moon | $5.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) | Davter17 | |
 | Assassin's Shadows | $14.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) | Noxurtica |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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