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Should I ship a Pirate Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Pirates
Only 19 developers shipped a Pirate Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 49 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,319) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $27,014) |
| Top 5% | $859k (exactly $859,214) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 66 |
| Announced | 49 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Pirates
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 2,189 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire 2018 · $8.8M 
Return to Monkey Island 2022 · $6.3M 
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M 
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own 2012 · $867k 
Rogue Waters 2024 · $859k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire | older | $19.99 | 14,659 87% | 440k | $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Return to Monkey Island | older | $24.99 | 8,412 91% | 252k | $6.3M (exactly $6,306,476) | Terrible Toybox |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Sea Dogs: To Each His Own | older | $14.99 | 1,927 72% | 58k | $867k (exactly $866,572) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
 | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Republic of Pirates | older | $24.99 | 420 70% | 13k | $315k (exactly $314,874) | Crazy Goat Games |
 | Hero-U: Rogue to Redemption | older | $29.99 | 280 90% | 8.4k | $252k (exactly $251,916) | Transolar Games |
 | The Caribbean Sail | older | $14.99 | 503 93% | 15k | $226k (exactly $226,199) | Victorian Clambake |
 | Erannorth Renaissance | $19.99 | 186 81% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $111,544) | Spyridon Thalassinos | |
 | Loot Line - Season 1 | $12.99 | 270 74% | 8.1k | $105k (exactly $105,219) | Candylight Studio | |
 | Red Rogue Sea | $16.99 | 53 64% | 1.6k | $27k (exactly $27,014) | Firemage Studios | |
 | Rivers of Astrum: Daughter of Darkness | · EA | $8.99 | 48 83% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $12,946) | Paper Tiger |
 | Tales From The Under-Realm: Lilith | $14.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $4.9k (exactly $4,947) | Winter Wolves | |
 | To Grant A Wish | $15.00 | 8 100% | 240 | $3.6k (exactly $3,600) | Wizard Raz Studios | |
 | This Be Mutiny | $6.99 | 16 87% | 480 | $3.4k (exactly $3,355) | Goodberry Games | |
 | Silk and Sabre | · EA | $10.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $1.3k (exactly $1,319) | JellyFluff Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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