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Should I ship a Heist Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Heist
Of 20 developers who shipped a Heist Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×41018 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 30 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.4k (exactly $3,418) |
| Top 25% | $57k (exactly $56,977) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 47 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Co-op
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Colorful, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 16,320 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Star Wars Outlaws 2024 · $26M 
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time 2026 · $1.1M 
Twin Mirror 2021 · $897k 
Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress 2021 · $253k 
Forensics: Crime Scene Detective 2026 · $216k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
| | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
| | Twin Mirror | older | $29.99 | 997 76% | 30k | $897k (exactly $897,001) | DON'T NOD |
| | Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress | older | $39.99 | 211 91% | 6.3k | $253k (exactly $253,137) | MintCUBE |
| | Forensics: Crime Scene Detective | $24.99 | 288 62% | 8.6k | $216k (exactly $215,914) | Binary Impact, Alchemical Works | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Master Magistrate | older | $29.99 | 184 90% | 5.5k | $166k (exactly $165,545) | IRODORI |
 | SIMULACRA 3 | older | $9.99 | 328 56% | 9.8k | $98k (exactly $98,302) | Kaigan Games |
 | Thief of Thieves | older | $19.99 | 153 72% | 4.6k | $92k (exactly $91,754) | Rival Games |
 | Cybernetic Seduction - Season 1 | older | $12.99 | 195 80% | 5.9k | $76k (exactly $75,992) | 1Thousand |
 | Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists | $24.99 | 76 78% | 2.3k | $57k (exactly $56,977) | A Sharp | |
 | SEX Police 🔞🚨 | $9.99 | 139 76% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $41,658) | Play and Cum 💦 | |
 | ROAD59 A Yakuza’s Last Stand | $29.99 | 27 37% | 810 | $24k (exactly $24,292) | 株式会社ロケットスタジオ | |
 | ACCIDENTALLY | $12.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $12k (exactly $11,691) | M&K WORKS | |
 | Splittown | $19.99 | 19 94% | 570 | $11k (exactly $11,394) | Mats Kyyrö, Juha Keränen | |
 | Unseen Diplomacy 2 | $18.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $3.4k (exactly $3,418) | Triangular Pixels |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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