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Should I ship a Fantasy Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Fantasy
Of 782 developers who shipped a Fantasy Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,612 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×795 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,612 games are announced against 463 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,728) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,486) |
| Top 5% | $378k (exactly $377,790) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 782 |
| Released games | 2,201 |
| Announced | 1,612 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Fantasy
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 110,799 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 398 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,612 games are announced against 463 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | Grim Dawn | older | $24.99 | 92,979 93% | 2.8M | $70M (exactly $69,706,356) | Crate Entertainment |
 | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 80,882 89% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,504,935) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Avowed | $49.99 | 12,653 76% | 380k | $19M (exactly $18,975,704) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Of Ash and Steel | $29.99 | 6,091 66% | 183k | $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) | Fire & Frost | |
 | Solasta II | · EA | $39.99 | 2,931 75% | 88k | $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) | Tactical Adventures |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
 | Sunderfolk | $49.99 | 1,890 93% | 57k | $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) | Secret Door |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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