Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › MMORPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an MMORPG?

MMORPG

Of 70 developers who shipped a paid MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 534 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.6 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $5.7M, ×4301 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 534 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 534 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.1k → $9.6k → $11k → $1.3k → $2.0M → $25k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 25% $144k (exactly $143,928)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 793
Announced 534
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 71%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 224,720 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $5.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 534 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with MMORPG

59 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. MMORPG + Loot Poor odds $253k 8 devs
  2. MMORPG + Trading Poor odds $206k 6 devs
  3. MMORPG + Sandbox Poor odds $144k 15 devs
  4. MMORPG + Dungeon Crawler Poor odds $144k 10 devs
  5. MMORPG + Crafting Poor odds $111k 25 devs
  6. MMORPG + Online Co-Op Poor odds $65k 15 devs
  7. MMORPG + Class-Based Poor odds $61k 7 devs
  8. MMORPG + Open World Poor odds $52k 33 devs
  9. MMORPG + Character Customization Poor odds $52k 28 devs
  10. MMORPG + Exploration Poor odds $52k 24 devs
  11. MMORPG + Co-op Poor odds $30k 14 devs
  12. MMORPG + Adventure Poor odds $27k 32 devs
  13. MMORPG + Action Poor odds $27k 30 devs
  14. MMORPG + PvE Poor odds $25k 34 devs
  15. MMORPG + Action-Adventure Poor odds $25k 15 devs
  16. MMORPG + Idler Poor odds $13k 8 devs
  17. MMORPG + RPG Poor odds $10k 55 devs
  18. MMORPG + Incremental Poor odds $10k 7 devs
  19. MMORPG + Action RPG Poor odds $8.3k 23 devs
  20. MMORPG + PvP Poor odds $4.2k 36 devs
  21. MMORPG + Combat Poor odds $3.0k 9 devs
  22. MMORPG + Simulation Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  23. MMORPG + Strategy Poor odds $599 12 devs
  24. MMORPG + Base Building Dead $253k 7 devs
  25. MMORPG + Hack and Slash Dead $253k 6 devs
  26. MMORPG + Resource Management Dead $107k 4 devs
  27. MMORPG + Economy Dead $65k 3 devs
  28. MMORPG + Roguelite Dead $61k 4 devs
  29. MMORPG + JRPG Dead $52k 3 devs
  30. MMORPG + Building Dead $49k 5 devs
  31. MMORPG + Creature Collector Dead $41k 4 devs
  32. MMORPG + Survival Dead $33k 9 devs
  33. MMORPG + 3D Platformer Dead $27k 2 devs
  34. MMORPG + Life Sim Dead $25k 2 devs
  35. MMORPG + Shooter Dead $13k 12 devs
  36. MMORPG + Tactical Dead $13k 4 devs
  37. MMORPG + Third-Person Shooter Dead $13k 9 devs
  38. MMORPG + Choose Your Own Adventure Dead $13k 5 devs
  39. MMORPG + Inventory Management Dead $10k 5 devs
  40. MMORPG + Point & Click Dead $10k 5 devs
  41. MMORPG + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $9.6k 2 devs
  42. MMORPG + Turn-Based Tactics Dead $9.6k 2 devs
  43. MMORPG + FPS Dead $4.3k 12 devs
  44. MMORPG + Party-Based RPG Dead $3.0k 8 devs
  45. MMORPG + CRPG Dead $3.0k 3 devs
  46. MMORPG + Strategy RPG Dead $2.2k 4 devs
  47. MMORPG + Immersive Sim Dead $1.3k 4 devs
  48. MMORPG + Action Roguelike Dead $1.2k 3 devs
  49. MMORPG + Tactical RPG Dead $899 6 devs
  50. MMORPG + Management Dead $599 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M Last Epoch 2024 · $112M Fallout 76 2020 · $94M Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen · EA $39.99 4,829 72% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) Visionary Realms
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Project: Gorgon $24.99 4,704 81% 141k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) Elder Game, LLC
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.