Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Class-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Class-Based MMORPG?

MMORPG + Class-Based

Only 7 developers shipped a paid Class-Based MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SpiritVale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 57 more are announced, ×8.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $61k, ×45 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1587 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 57 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 45.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 57 announced, ×8.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Class-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + Class-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $61k (exactly $61,139)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $110,589)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 49
Announced 57
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 76%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Class-Based
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 139,963 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $61k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $30k · 95 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Camelot Unchained · EA $9.99 369 38% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) Unchained Entertainment
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Trolddom $9.99 204 94% 6.1k $61k (exactly $61,139) Plant Based Games
Sojo · EA older $5.99 19 73% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) bagoDev LLC
Kalnazar $9.99 10 70% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) RobotsGames
Amaranth Source Online $20.00 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,400) Qaranzo Games
Fawe $6.99 11 72% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Jansen Bros Games
Raiding.Zone · EA older $1.99 26 76% 780 $1.6k (exactly $1,552) Lukas Meisegeier

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.