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Should I ship a Base Building MMORPG?
MMORPG + Base Building
Only 7 developers shipped a paid Base Building MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pax Dei, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 54 more are announced, ×18 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $250k against a market of $1.3k. 54 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $33k (exactly $33,267) |
|---|---|
| Median | $253k (exactly $252,731) |
| Top 25% | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 59 |
| Announced | 54 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1465% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 53%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Base Building
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 161,119 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $34k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×18 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
Comparable games
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M 
Pax Dei 2025 · $6.4M 
Dark and Light 2017 · EA · $5.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | Myth of Empires | older | $29.99 | 15,520 68% | 466k | $14M (exactly $13,963,344) | Angela Game |
| | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
| | Dark and Light | · EA older | $17.99 | 10,577 51% | 317k | $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) | Snail Games USA |
 | Citadel: Forged with Fire | older | $14.99 | 5,004 67% | 150k | $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) | Blue Isle Studios |
 | Wurm Unlimited | older | $29.99 | 1,879 72% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) | Code Club AB |
 | Wild Terra 2: New Lands | older | $39.99 | 1,379 62% | 41k | $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) | Juvty Worlds |
 | BitCraft Online | · EA | $15.99 | 3,334 72% | 100k | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) | Clockwork Laboratories, Inc. |
 | Draconia | · EA older | $19.99 | 798 64% | 24k | $479k (exactly $478,561) | Draconia Dev Team |
 | Stars Reach | · EA | $29.99 | 322 52% | 9.7k | $290k (exactly $289,703) | Playable Worlds, Inc. |
 | Soulbound: Online | · EA | $14.99 | 562 58% | 17k | $253k (exactly $252,731) | SpiderWare |
 | Ice World | $9.99 | 111 57% | 3.3k | $33k (exactly $33,267) | CoolRabbit Games | |
 | Wild Alone | $10.99 | 38 47% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,529) | Wild Alone 21 | |
 | Forbidden zone | $4.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Karuna |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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