Should I ship a PvP MMORPG?
MMORPG + PvP
Of 36 developers who shipped a paid PvP MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 297 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×3.1 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 700% on the market; 297 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,200) |
| Top 25% | $111k (exactly $110,589) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 36 |
| Released games | 396 |
| Announced | 297 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 700% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 76%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, PvP; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 62% positive over 49,711 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 297 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
Comparable games
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Temtem 2022 · $42M 
Red Dead Online 2020 · $36M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER 2023 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Temtem | older | $44.99 | 31,263 82% | 938k | $42M (exactly $42,195,671) | Crema |
| | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER | older | $19.99 | 42,572 84% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $25,530,428) | Soleil Ltd. |
 | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
 | Last Oasis | · EA older | $29.99 | 20,443 63% | 613k | $18M (exactly $18,392,567) | Donkey Crew |
 | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Absolver | older | $29.99 | 11,464 74% | 344k | $10M (exactly $10,314,161) | Sloclap |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | BitCraft Online | · EA | $15.99 | 3,334 72% | 100k | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) | Clockwork Laboratories, Inc. |
 | Afterinfection | $8.99 | 463 56% | 14k | $125k (exactly $124,871) | RePatrick21 | |
 | Camelot Unchained | · EA | $9.99 | 369 38% | 11k | $111k (exactly $110,589) | Unchained Entertainment |
 | Reaper Actual | · EA | $19.99 | 109 42% | 3.3k | $65k (exactly $65,367) | Distinct Possibility Studios, Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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