Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Action-Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action-Adventure MMORPG?

MMORPG + Action-Adventure

Only 15 developers shipped a paid Action-Adventure MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 116 more are announced, ×23 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×18 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $5.7M, ×4301 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 116 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 116 announced, ×23 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Action-Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.8k → $67k → $13k → $25k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Action-Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $25k (exactly $24,689)
Top 25% $720k (exactly $719,760)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 134
Announced 116
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 63%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Action-Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 12,561 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $5.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×23 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Desert 2017 · $19M Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen 2024 · EA · $5.8M Age of Water 2025 · $2.6M Guild Wars® Reforged 2025 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen · EA $39.99 4,829 72% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) Visionary Realms
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions · EA $29.99 800 56% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) System Era Softworks
Paw Patrol: On A Roll! older $29.99 345 84% 10k $310k (exactly $310,396) Torus Games
Xsyon - Prelude · EA older $29.99 307 69% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) Notorious Games
The Adventurer's Domain Online · EA older $15.99 207 65% 6.2k $99k (exactly $99,298) Unbalanced Equations
Zero-based World-从零开始 · EA older $18.99 149 68% 4.5k $85k (exactly $84,885) zerogame
Gnome Online $17.99 124 73% 3.7k $67k (exactly $66,923) H-Production
Fantasy Online 2 · EA $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) Pixel Games LLC
Spire Horizon Online $3.99 343 64% 10k $41k (exactly $41,057) Mendoka
The Story Page · EA $7.99 103 78% 3.1k $25k (exactly $24,689) SPR-Games
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
City of Cats · EA $14.99 3 66% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Screaming Cat Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.