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Should I ship an Online Co-Op MMORPG?
MMORPG + Online Co-Op
Only 15 developers shipped a paid Online Co-Op MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Path of Exile 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 130 more are announced, ×19 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $65k, ×49 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $150M, ×112032 the market median. Revenue is up 1595% on the market; 130 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $65k (exactly $65,367) |
| Top 25% | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) |
| Top 5% | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 193 |
| Announced | 130 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1595% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 79%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Online Co-Op
- effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Online Co-Op
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 192,858 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 130 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×19 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M 
Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M 
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ 2016 · $69M 
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M 
Red Dead Online 2020 · $36M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
| | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
| | Tom Clancy’s The Division™ | older | $29.99 | 76,985 72% | 2.3M | $69M (exactly $69,263,404) | Massive Entertainment |
| | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
| | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
 | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
 | DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2 | older | $19.99 | 45,155 90% | 1.4M | $27M (exactly $27,079,453) | QLOC, Dimps Corporation |
 | NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER | older | $19.99 | 42,572 84% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $25,530,428) | Soleil Ltd. |
 | Myth of Empires | older | $29.99 | 15,520 68% | 466k | $14M (exactly $13,963,344) | Angela Game |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen | · EA | $39.99 | 4,829 72% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) | Visionary Realms |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions | · EA | $29.99 | 800 56% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | System Era Softworks |
 | Equinox: Homecoming | $14.99 | 1,294 80% | 39k | $582k (exactly $581,912) | Blue Scarab Entertainment | |
 | Soulbound: Online | · EA | $14.99 | 562 58% | 17k | $253k (exactly $252,731) | SpiderWare |
 | Reaper Actual | · EA | $19.99 | 109 42% | 3.3k | $65k (exactly $65,367) | Distinct Possibility Studios, Inc. |
 | StarArc Echo | $5.99 | 149 66% | 4.5k | $27k (exactly $26,775) | 兔狐喵菇工作室 | |
 | Legends of Aria Eternal | $20.00 | 7 71% | 210 | $4.2k (exactly $4,200) | Emergent Worlds |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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