Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Co-op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op MMORPG?

MMORPG + Co-op

Only 14 developers shipped a paid Co-op MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fellowship, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 95 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30k, ×22 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×8547 the market median. Revenue is up 23130% on the market; 95 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 23130% on the market, 95 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Co-op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $25k → $449 → $65k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Co-op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $30k (exactly $30,270)
Top 25% $582k (exactly $581,912)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,513,143)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 205
Announced 95
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 23130% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 71%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Co-op
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 19,921 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $30k, 1 in 4 over $580k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2 older $19.99 45,155 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,079,453) QLOC, Dimps Corporation
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions · EA $29.99 800 56% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) System Era Softworks
Equinox: Homecoming $14.99 1,294 80% 39k $582k (exactly $581,912) Blue Scarab Entertainment
Reaper Actual · EA $19.99 109 42% 3.3k $65k (exactly $65,367) Distinct Possibility Studios, Inc.
Past Fate · EA $19.99 81 43% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) Icy North Games
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game
StarArc Echo $5.99 149 66% 4.5k $27k (exactly $26,775) 兔狐喵菇工作室
Amaranth Source Online $20.00 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,400) Qaranzo Games
Swordia $4.99 5 40% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Affliction Networks LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.