Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Sandbox
Should I ship a Sandbox MMORPG?
MMORPG + Sandbox
Only 15 developers shipped a paid Sandbox MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pax Dei, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 107 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $140k, ×107 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $25k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 675% on the market; 107 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $25k (exactly $24,689) |
|---|---|
| Median | $144k (exactly $143,928) |
| Top 25% | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 143 |
| Announced | 107 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $17.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 675% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 61%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Sandbox
- Price point
- $17.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 20,494 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $25k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
Black Desert 2017 · $19M 
Last Oasis 2020 · EA · $18M 
Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M 
Mortal Online 2 2022 · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
| | Last Oasis | · EA older | $29.99 | 20,443 63% | 613k | $18M (exactly $18,392,567) | Donkey Crew |
| | Myth of Empires | older | $29.99 | 15,520 68% | 466k | $14M (exactly $13,963,344) | Angela Game |
| | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
 | Dark and Light | · EA older | $17.99 | 10,577 51% | 317k | $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) | Snail Games USA |
 | Life is Feudal: Your Own | older | $19.99 | 8,804 65% | 264k | $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) | Bitbox Ltd. |
 | 《蜀山：初章》买断版 | older | $24.99 | 5,772 74% | 173k | $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) | 重楼工作室 |
 | Project: Gorgon | $24.99 | 4,704 81% | 141k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) | Elder Game, LLC | |
 | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
 | BitCraft Online | · EA | $15.99 | 3,334 72% | 100k | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) | Clockwork Laboratories, Inc. |
 | STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions | · EA | $29.99 | 800 56% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | System Era Softworks |
 | Stars Reach | · EA | $29.99 | 322 52% | 9.7k | $290k (exactly $289,703) | Playable Worlds, Inc. |
 | Lugh World | · EA | $14.99 | 458 68% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,963) | Lughsoft |
 | Embers Adrift | $19.99 | 240 69% | 7.2k | $144k (exactly $143,928) | Stormhaven Studios | |
 | Gnome Online | $17.99 | 124 73% | 3.7k | $67k (exactly $66,923) | H-Production | |
 | Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG | $14.99 | 144 84% | 4.3k | $65k (exactly $64,757) | Wizard |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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