Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + CRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a CRPG MMORPG?

MMORPG + CRPG

Only 3 developers shipped a paid CRPG MMORPG in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 10 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 40 more are announced, ×20 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.0k against a market of $1.3k. 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 40 announced, ×20 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + CRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + CRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $228 (exactly $228)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020)
Developers, 4 yr 10
Released games 83
Announced 40
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 84%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, CRPG
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $230, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $230. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×20 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
Kings Of Streets · EA older $4.99 132 53% 4.0k $20k (exactly $19,760) TB Games
仙途世界 older $29.99 16 87% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) Deep Cave
BrawlQuest older $6.99 25 100% 750 $5.2k (exactly $5,242) Thomas Lock
Kalnazar $9.99 10 70% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) RobotsGames
不朽之刃/Blade of Immortality older $6.99 12 66% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Mr. Undead
新星辰变 older $7.99 4 25% 120 $959 (exactly $959) 三冬游戏工作室
Girl X Island older $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) MitaGame3D
Grim-World:Survival older $1.90 4 0% 120 $228 (exactly $228) GrimStudio
Ferral Quest $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) ZonaBit's Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.