Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting MMORPG?

MMORPG + Crafting

Of 25 developers who shipped a paid Crafting MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 155 more are announced, ×9.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $110k, ×82 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $34k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 155 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 82.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 155 announced, ×9.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $3.4k → $41k → $1.6M → $2.0M → $111k (still earning) → $65k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $33k (exactly $33,267)
Median $111k (exactly $110,589)
Top 25% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 161
Announced 155
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 60%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 209,434 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $34k, median $110k, 1 in 4 over $2.1M, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $34k. 2 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 155 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  7. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $30k · 95 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M Black Desert 2017 · $19M Last Oasis 2020 · EA · $18M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
Mortal Online 2 older $39.99 11,103 59% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Star Vault AB
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Dark and Light · EA older $17.99 10,577 51% 317k $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) Snail Games USA
Life is Feudal: Your Own older $19.99 8,804 65% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) Bitbox Ltd.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Project: Gorgon $24.99 4,704 81% 141k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) Elder Game, LLC
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.