Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Loot
Should I ship a Loot MMORPG?
MMORPG + Loot
Only 8 developers shipped a paid Loot MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Path of Exile 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 57 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $250k, ×188 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $150M, ×112032 the market median. Revenue is up 215% on the market; 57 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $253k (exactly $252,731) |
| Top 25% | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) |
| Top 5% | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 88 |
| Announced | 57 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $16.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 215% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 77%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Loot
- Price point
- $16.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 355,282 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M 
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M 
Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M 
Fellowship 2025 · EA · $12M 
SpiritVale 2026 · EA · $2.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
| | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
| | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
| | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | Wild Terra 2: New Lands | older | $39.99 | 1,379 62% | 41k | $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) | Juvty Worlds |
 | Soulbound: Online | · EA | $14.99 | 562 58% | 17k | $253k (exactly $252,731) | SpiderWare |
 | Embers Adrift | $19.99 | 240 69% | 7.2k | $144k (exactly $143,928) | Stormhaven Studios | |
 | Athos | · EA older | $24.99 | 95 58% | 2.9k | $71k (exactly $71,222) | Neojac Entertainment Inc. |
 | Kings Of Streets | · EA older | $4.99 | 132 53% | 4.0k | $20k (exactly $19,760) | TB Games |
 | 猎人修仙传 Hunter Immortal | $7.99 | 5 20% | 150 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | blues | |
 | Mythic Manager | · EA | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | Oracle Algorithms |
 | 进化岛：Jinhuadao | $16.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | 古德模型, goodmoxing |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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