Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + JRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG MMORPG?

MMORPG + JRPG

Only 3 developers shipped a paid JRPG MMORPG in the last 2 years. Over all years on record, 14 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 11 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 0 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $52k against a market of $1.3k. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 38.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + JRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, all n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + JRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, all, n = 14
Bottom 30% $27k (exactly $26,775)
Median $1.1M (exactly $1,100,125)
Top 25% $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962)
Top 5% $285M (exactly $285,266,080)
Developers, all 14
Released games 59
Announced 11
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 71%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, JRPG
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 458,296 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes over all years on record by share: 3 in 10 under $27k, median $1.1M, 1 in 4 over $9.2M, 1 in 20 over $280M.

3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 0 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Temtem $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition $39.99 5,731 78% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) AQURIA
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Accel World VS. Sword Art Online Deluxe Edition $39.99 917 74% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,100,125) ARTDINK CORPORATION
Sword Art Online: Lost Song $19.99 1,736 80% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,041,079) Artdink
FINAL FANTASY® XI: Ultimate Collection Seekers Edition $29.99 421 88% 13k $379k (exactly $378,774) Square Enix

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.