Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat MMORPG?

MMORPG + Combat

Only 9 developers shipped a paid Combat MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fellowship, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 155 more are announced, ×26 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.2 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×8547 the market median. Revenue is up 66280% on the market; 155 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 66280% on the market, 155 announced, ×26 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $3.4k → $299 → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $110,589)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,513,143)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 159
Announced 155
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 66280% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 79%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 38,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 155 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×26 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Online 2 older $39.99 11,103 59% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Star Vault AB
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Camelot Unchained · EA $9.99 369 38% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) Unchained Entertainment
Tru Or Die older $9.99 336 52% 10k $101k (exactly $100,699) Tru Hunnit
The Adventurer's Domain Online · EA older $15.99 207 65% 6.2k $99k (exactly $99,298) Unbalanced Equations
The Wolf older $9.99 186 68% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) Good Luck Games
Arcane Vale older $11.99 146 73% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,516) Dynamic Zero
The Infinite Black 2 older $6.99 201 87% 6.0k $42k (exactly $42,150) Spellbook
Spire Horizon Online $3.99 343 64% 10k $41k (exactly $41,057) Mendoka
Kalnazar $9.99 10 70% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) RobotsGames
Stellar Odyssey · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Warp Studios Pty Ltd
Arobynn: Sword of Adventure $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jace Of Shadows Gaming LLC
Yuki Onna: Snowball Fight! $1.99 4 75% 120 $239 (exactly $239) YStar
GGO 枪战火线 $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) 布工作室, Cloth Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.