Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Exploration
Should I ship an Exploration MMORPG?
MMORPG + Exploration
Of 24 developers who shipped a paid Exploration MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 213 more are announced, ×15 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $52k, ×38 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2618 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 213 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $4.2k (exactly $4,200) |
|---|---|
| Median | $52k (exactly $51,848) |
| Top 25% | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 209 |
| Announced | 213 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 67%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Exploration; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Character Customization, Open World
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 29,025 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 5 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 213 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×15 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M 
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
 | Temtem | older | $44.99 | 31,263 82% | 938k | $42M (exactly $42,195,671) | Crema |
 | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
 | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
 | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Project: Gorgon | $24.99 | 4,704 81% | 141k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) | Elder Game, LLC | |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | BitCraft Online | · EA | $15.99 | 3,334 72% | 100k | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) | Clockwork Laboratories, Inc. |
 | STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions | · EA | $29.99 | 800 56% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | System Era Softworks |
 | Equinox: Homecoming | $14.99 | 1,294 80% | 39k | $582k (exactly $581,912) | Blue Scarab Entertainment | |
 | Lugh World | · EA | $14.99 | 458 68% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,963) | Lughsoft |
 | Camelot Unchained | · EA | $9.99 | 369 38% | 11k | $111k (exactly $110,589) | Unchained Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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