Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Third-Person Shooter
Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter MMORPG?
MMORPG + Third-Person Shooter
Only 9 developers shipped a paid Third-Person Shooter MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 26 more are announced, ×13 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.
Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $13k against a market of $1.3k. 26 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $12,529) |
| Top 25% | $125k (exactly $124,871) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 41 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 70% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 49%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Third-Person Shooter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 166,800 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×13 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
Comparable games
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ 2016 · $69M 
Red Dead Online 2020 · $36M 
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet 2018 · $9.3M 
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream 2024 · $3.6M 
Age of Water 2025 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Tom Clancy’s The Division™ | older | $29.99 | 76,985 72% | 2.3M | $69M (exactly $69,263,404) | Massive Entertainment |
| | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
| | Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet | older | $19.99 | 15,461 79% | 464k | $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) | Dimps Corporation |
| | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
| | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | Next Day: Survival | older | $9.99 | 8,623 62% | 259k | $2.6M (exactly $2,584,313) | SOFF Games |
 | Paw Patrol: On A Roll! | older | $29.99 | 345 84% | 10k | $310k (exactly $310,396) | Torus Games |
 | Afterinfection | $8.99 | 463 56% | 14k | $125k (exactly $124,871) | RePatrick21 | |
 | Tru Or Die | older | $9.99 | 336 52% | 10k | $101k (exactly $100,699) | Tru Hunnit |
 | Ice World | $9.99 | 111 57% | 3.3k | $33k (exactly $33,267) | CoolRabbit Games | |
 | Wild Alone | $10.99 | 38 47% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,529) | Wild Alone 21 | |
 | Venator Universe | · EA | $4.99 | 22 63% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | Fullset Gaming |
 | Floral Fury Online | $9.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | Yücel Sabah | |
 | Forbidden zone | $4.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Karuna | |
 | Yuki Onna: Snowball Fight! | $1.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $239 (exactly $239) | YStar |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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