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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure MMORPG?
MMORPG + Choose Your Own Adventure
Only 5 developers shipped a paid Choose Your Own Adventure MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Guild Wars® Reforged, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 54 more are announced, ×18 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $13k against a market of $1.3k. 54 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $12,529) |
| Top 25% | $206k (exactly $205,963) |
| Top 5% | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 5 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 54 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 54%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $10.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 146,958 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×18 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
Comparable games
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
《蜀山：初章》买断版 2022 · $4.3M 
Guild Wars® Reforged 2025 · $2.0M 
Windward 2015 · $800k 
Lugh World 2026 · EA · $206k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | 《蜀山：初章》买断版 | older | $24.99 | 5,772 74% | 173k | $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) | 重楼工作室 |
| | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
| | Windward | older | $9.99 | 2,668 79% | 80k | $800k (exactly $799,600) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. |
| | Lugh World | · EA | $14.99 | 458 68% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,963) | Lughsoft |
 | Zero-based World-从零开始 | · EA older | $18.99 | 149 68% | 4.5k | $85k (exactly $84,885) | zerogame |
 | Kings Of Streets | · EA older | $4.99 | 132 53% | 4.0k | $20k (exactly $19,760) | TB Games |
 | Wild Alone | $10.99 | 38 47% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,529) | Wild Alone 21 | |
 | Five Nights: No Escape | older | $9.99 | 33 66% | 990 | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) | Fun Cradle |
 | Venator Universe | · EA | $4.99 | 22 63% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | Fullset Gaming |
 | Trumps Of Albion | $10.00 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Ka Yan Liu |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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