Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy MMORPG?

MMORPG + Strategy

Only 12 developers shipped a paid Strategy MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MMO98, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 86 more are announced, ×12 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 86 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 86 announced, ×12 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $1.6k → $228 → $449 → $599 (still earning) → $505 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 5% $107k (exactly $107,157)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 172
Announced 86
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 70%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 71% positive over 669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER 2023 · $26M Black Desert 2017 · $19M Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M Life is Feudal: Your Own 2015 · $5.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER older $19.99 42,572 84% 1.3M $26M (exactly $25,530,428) Soleil Ltd.
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
Life is Feudal: Your Own older $19.99 8,804 65% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) Bitbox Ltd.
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
MMO98 $6.99 511 69% 15k $107k (exactly $107,157) BiteMe Games
Cellyon: Boss Confrontation older $17.99 36 75% 1.1k $19k (exactly $19,429) Sentry Games
惊险极速 · EA older $6.99 91 97% 2.7k $19k (exactly $19,083) 个人
M4 Tank Brigade older $19.99 18 55% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) iEntertainment Network Inc
The Auto Sort Is Broken $2.99 93 80% 2.8k $8.3k (exactly $8,342) Fractal Projects
NO STRANGERS $4.99 29 58% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Xeirel Software
Catolonizer · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Alin Games
Stellar Odyssey · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Warp Studios Pty Ltd
Mythic Manager · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Oracle Algorithms
Your Ex $0.99 17 94% 510 $505 (exactly $505) workflowstd
Forbidden zone $4.99 3 0% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Karuna
League of Immortals $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Inferno Entertainment LLC
Gate · EA $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) KJ-Kit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.