Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Open World
Should I ship an Open World MMORPG?
MMORPG + Open World
Of 33 developers who shipped a paid Open World MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 252 more are announced, ×13 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $52k, ×38 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 1120% on the market; 252 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
|---|---|
| Median | $52k (exactly $51,848) |
| Top 25% | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 33 |
| Released games | 335 |
| Announced | 252 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1120% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 70%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, Open World; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Crafting, PvE
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 59,103 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 4 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 252 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×13 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M 
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ 2016 · $69M 
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Tom Clancy’s The Division™ | older | $29.99 | 76,985 72% | 2.3M | $69M (exactly $69,263,404) | Massive Entertainment |
| | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
 | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
 | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
 | DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2 | older | $19.99 | 45,155 90% | 1.4M | $27M (exactly $27,079,453) | QLOC, Dimps Corporation |
 | NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER | older | $19.99 | 42,572 84% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $25,530,428) | Soleil Ltd. |
 | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen | · EA | $39.99 | 4,829 72% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) | Visionary Realms |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Project: Gorgon | $24.99 | 4,704 81% | 141k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) | Elder Game, LLC | |
 | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | BitCraft Online | · EA | $15.99 | 3,334 72% | 100k | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) | Clockwork Laboratories, Inc. |
 | STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions | · EA | $29.99 | 800 56% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | System Era Softworks |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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